Happy Sunday, (Monday?). Sometimes Sunday deadlines are merely suggestions but at least we’re not transferring nuclear launch codes over here.
What Pressure?
This week was about pressure: diplomatic pressure over Greenland, brutal pressure on protesters in Iran, and market pressure as investors navigate a minefield of tariff threats. Let’s zoom out.
Iran
What started as protests over economic hardship in late December exploded into one of the deadliest government crackdowns in modern Iranian history. Between January 8-12 alone, estimates suggest 2,000 to over 3,000 protesters were killed, with total death toll estimates ranging from 12,000 to as high as 20,000 according to various human rights groups and medical sources inside Iran.
The Bigger Picture:
Supreme Leader Khamenei acknowledged “several thousands” have been killed
Trump announced 25% tariffs on any country doing business with Iran , adding economic pressure to an already volatile situation
Oil markets are pricing in regime uncertainty. When governments fear their own people this much, instability becomes inevitable
🇬🇱 Greenland: Trump’s NATO Tariff Gambit
In the week’s most bizarre power play, President Trump announced 10% tariffs on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK starting February 1 (rising to 25% by June 1 unless they agree to the “complete and total purchase of Greenland.”)
The Bigger Picture:
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer called applying tariffs on allies “completely wrong”.
US stock futures fell Monday, with S&P 500 futures dropping 1% as investors processed the threat to transatlantic trade
Markets: Volatility + Tariff Chaos
The S&P 500 fell 0.19% Tuesday, while the Dow dropped 0.8% as investors digested mixed bank earnings and Trump’s flurry of policy announcements. JPMorgan beat earnings expectations but fell 4.2% as investment banking fees missed forecasts.
By the Numbers
CPI (December): +2.7% YoY, +0.3% MoM
Core CPI: 2.6% (better than 2.8% forecast)
Markets (week ending Jan 17, 2026):
S&P 500: ▼ 0.1%
Dow: Flat
Nasdaq: ▼ 0.4%
0-Year Treasury: Hovering around 4.6%
Oil: Elevated on Iran uncertainty
Bitcoin: Consolidating near $102K
What Everyone’s Talking About
- NFL Divisional Playoffs: Conference championships set (Indiana vs UMiami)
- Golden Globes aftermath: Award season picks up steam
The theme this week? Pressure. Political pressure, economic pressure, diplomatic pressure. When you squeeze systems hard enough, something breaks. My question is for what breaks first and who really pays the price.
Until next time,
the bigger picture
“zoom out, see what matters”
